Chief Investigator: Dr Catia Malvaso

Funding Amount: $95,850

Recipient: University of Adelaide

Overview:

The cross-over of children from out-of-home care into youth justice detention is striking. However, detention is a last resort reserved for the most serious offenders, with ~80% of the youth justice population supervised in the community. Characteristics of children and out-of-home care experiences that influence different pathways through the youth justice system remain unknown. This will be the first Australian study to investigate when, how and for whom different out-of-home care experiences lead to community- and detention-based youth justice supervision and will generate the evidence needed to inform and target interventions that can alter higher risk pathways.

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Research Outcomes:

Researchers: Catia Malvaso, Rhiannon Pilkington, Alicia Montgomerie, John Lynch, Paul Delfabbro, Andrew Day

Research Completed: 2022

Research Findings: Our research demonstrates that Youth Justice (YJ) is supervising a large proportion of young people who have experienced out-of-home care (OOHC) placements. Young people known to both OOHC and YJ systems experienced pronounced social and economic disadvantage from birth, as well as significant placement instability during their time in OOHC. This information is necessary for planning and developing intervention services, and for identifying opportunities to provide these children with early supports that may prevent transitions from OOHC into YJ.

Key Outcomes:

Children with out-of-home care (OOHC) placement histories are over-represented in youth detention. However, detention-based supervision is a last resort option, with ~80% of the youth justice (YJ) population supervised in the community. This aim of this research was to investigate when, how and for whom different OOHC experiences resulted in community- and detention-based YJ supervision and to generate the evidence needed to inform interventions that can alter higher risk pathways.

Data were drawn from the Better Evidence Better Outcomes Linked Data (BEBOLD) – one of Australia’s most comprehensive, de-identified linked data platforms. Built and led by CI Lynch, BEBOLD contains whole-of-population data on ~500,000 children in SA born 1991 onwards. For this research, we followed children from birth to age 18 as that captured the entire eligibility period for both OOHC experiences and YJ supervision. With complete YJ data available up until 2016, we were able to follow 8 birth cohorts of children born in 1991 through 1998 up until age 18.

 The intersection between OOHC and YJ. Of young people who had ever experienced OOHC placement (n=4,841), almost 15% also experienced YJ supervision between ages 10 and 18 – that is more than 1 in 7 young people. Of the young people who had ever experienced YJ supervision, one in four had experienced at least one placement in OOHC. Therefore, the YJ system in SA is supervising a large proportion of young people who are in, or have experienced, OOHC placement. This information is crucial for planning and developing assessment and intervention services.

YJ supervision patterns by OOHC experiences. The intersection between OOHC and YJ systems can be examined from different perspectives. We first considered all young people who were supervised by YJ (n=3,058) and examined differences in supervision patterns according to whether or not the young people had also experienced OOHC placement. We found that young people with OOHC experiences were more likely to experience more serious types of YJ supervision. The proportion of young people who had been in OOHC and who experienced sentenced custodial supervision was two times higher relative to young people who had never been in OOHC. Young people who had been in OOHC were more likely to have their first YJ supervision at a younger age – more than half of both males and females who had been in OOHC had their first YJ supervision between ages 10 and 14, compared to less than one quarter of young people who had never experienced OOHC.

We also considered all young people who had been in OOHC (excluding those who had only ever been in respite care, n=3,792) to examine how different patterns of OOHC placements were associated with YJ supervision. We found that young people placed in OOHC for the first time at an older age were more likely to experience YJ supervision, with 33% of those placed in OOHC after age 10 experiencing YJ supervision compared with only 19% of those placed after age 10 who did not experience YJ supervision. We also found that the vast majority of young people (87%) experienced their first OOHC placement prior to their first YJ supervision order. Experiences of placement instability were more common among young people supervised by YJ – 19% of those who had been in OOHC and under YJ supervision experienced placement instability compared with only 9% of those who had never been under YJ supervision.

Socio-demographic and perinatal characteristics at birth. Patterns of social and economic disadvantage were evident among young people who had experienced OOHC and/or YJ supervision. However, this disadvantage was more pronounced for those who had experienced both OOHC and YJ: 61% were born to mothers aged less than 24 years at her first birth; 49% were born to single mothers; 60% were born into jobless families; 34% were born to mothers who had insufficient antenatal care; and a striking 86% were born to mothers who smoked during pregnancy. Using risk prediction to inform early intervention. To investigate how well we can predict which young people will be under YJ supervision by age 18, among young people placed in OOHC before age 10. Logistic regression models were used to predict: 1) any YJ supervision; 2) any custodial YJ supervision. Child and maternal sociodemographic and perinatal characteristics at birth, as well as maltreatment and placement characteristics were included as predictors. Using all 42 predictors, model discrimination (AUROC and AUPRC) was ~0.8 and ~0.4, respectively, for both outcomes. Using the top 30% of the predicted probabilities as the ‘high’ risk threshold: 523 children were classified as ‘high’ risk for any YJ supervision, and 522 for any custodial YJ supervision; sensitivity was 70.3% and 62.3%, respectively; specificity was 76.5% and 85.0%, and the positive predictive value was 32.3% and 32.9%. The prediction model improved classification of those children who go on to experience any YJ supervision from 13.5% of all of the 2,832 eligible children to 32.3% of those in the highest 30% of risk, and from 10.6% to 32.9% for those in the highest 30% of risk for any custodial YJ supervision. This analysis suggests there is potential to identify children in OOHC who are at higher risk of transitioning into YJ, and to provide these children with early supports that may prevent these transitions. However, there are ethical and practical considerations to using prediction models in this population, including the types of support programs employed and potential social and financial costs of inevitable false positive and negative predictions.

Research Papers: Published Reports

Malvaso C, Santiago P, Pilkington, R, Montgomerie, A, Delfabbro, P, Day, A, & Lynch, J. (2020) Youth Justice supervision in South Australia. Adelaide: BetterStart Child Health and Development Research Group, The University of Adelaide.

Malvaso C, Santiago P, Pilkington, R, Montgomerie, A, Delfabbro, P, Day, A & Lynch, J. (2020) The intersection between the Child Protection and Youth Justice systems in South Australia. Adelaide: BetterStart Child Health and Development Research Group, The University of Adelaide.

Papers in preparation

Malvaso C, Santiago P, Pilkington, R, Montgomerie, A, Delfabbro, P, Day, A & Lynch, J. (2022). Profiling the early life characteristics and child protection contact among young people with different patterns of justice system contact.

Malvaso C, Santiago P, Pilkington, R, Montgomerie, A, Delfabbro, P, Day, A & Lynch, J. (2022). Children at risk of transitioning from out-of-home care into youth justice: Using formal risk prediction to inform prevention.

Presentations

Malvaso, C., Santiago P, Pilkington, R, Montgomerie, A, Delfabbro, P, Day, A & Lynch, J. (2021, December). Out-of-home care to Youth Justice transitions: Using risk prediction to inform prevention. Online presentation at the Australian and New Zealand Society of Criminology annual conference.

Lynch, J., & Malvaso, C. (2021, July). The BEBOLD platform: Using whole-population linked administrative data to identify opportunities for preventing contact with the justice system. Invited presentation to the South Australian magistrates at the Supreme Court of SA, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.

Malvaso, C. (2021, July). Opportunities to prevent pathways from maltreatment to youth justice. Invited workshop with the Department of Human Services Youth Justice Executive Steering Group Committee, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.

Malvaso, C.G. & Lynch, J. (2021, June). Youth Justice Supervision in SA and intersections with the Child Protection system. Invited presentation at a judicial education session before the Senior Judge, magistrates and conferencing unit staff of the Adelaide Youth Court, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.

Malvaso, C.G. (2021, June). The intersection between the child protection and youth justice systems in South Australia. Invited presentation to the Department for Child Protection’s Out-of-Home Care Executive Leadership group, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.

Malvaso, C.G. (2021, May). The intersection between the child protection and youth justice systems in South Australia. Invited presentation to the Department of Human Services Youth Justice Executive Steering Group Committee, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.

Malvaso, C.G. (2021, April). The intersection between the child protection and youth justice systems in South Australia. Keynote presentation at the Care History Awareness month online webinar, online.

Malvaso, C.G. (2021, March). The intersection between the child protection and youth justice systems in South Australia. Invited presentation to the Department for Child Protection’s research management executive committee, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.

Malvaso, C.G. (2021, March). The intersection between the child protection and youth justice systems in South Australia. Keynote presentation at the School of Public Health Research Symposium, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.

Malvaso, C.G. (2020, November). Pathways from child maltreatment to youth and adult offending: A program of research. Invited presentation to the Youth Justice Executive Leadership team, Department of Human Services, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.

Lynch, J., & Malvaso, C.G. (2020, October). The Better Evidence Better Outcomes Linked Data (BEBOLD) platform. Invited presentation at a judicial education session before the Senior Judge, magistrates and conferencing unit staff of the Adelaide Youth Court, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.

Malvaso, C.G. (2020, April). Research into complex populations: Young people leaving care and intersections between child protection and youth justice. Invited presentation for the Exceptional Needs Unit, Department of Human Services, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.

Related Publications:

Future Outcomes: We do not intend to commercialize any intellectual property developed during the research project.